Millennial Economy Index: Jobs, Mobility and Pay

The Millennial Economy Index examines what monthly jobs data reveals about workers roughly 30 to 45 years old. Its first finding is a holding pattern: Americans ages 35 to 44 remain employed at a low rate of unemployment, but job mobility is limited and paychecks are losing ground to inflation. In September, the unemployment rate for workers ages 35 to 44 was 3.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly household survey. It has stayed between 2.9% and 3.5% every month since April. In August, this group had the lowest unemployment rate of any age group from 25 to 54. The figures show steady employment, but not necessarily career progress or rising purchasing power. Steady work in a stalled market Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, and the overall unemployment rate was 4.2%, according to the Employment Situation release, published Oct. 2. The BLS also revised July and August employment downward by a combined 60,000 jobs. Age-group figures add context. Pew Research Center defines millennials as people born between 1981 and 1996, putting the generation between 30 and 45 this year. Workers ages 35 to 44 are at its center. In September, their unemployment rate was 3.3%, compared with 4.3% for workers ages 25 to 34 and 3.0% for those ages 45 to 54. The older comparison group merits attention because elder millennials are now aging into it. Its unemployment rate increased from 2.8% in September 2025 to 3.0% this September, according to the same BLS table. Meanwhile, the rate for workers ages 25 to 34 fell from 4.8% to 4.3% over the same year. Millennials remain employed overall, though the older end of the age range is beginning to see conditions shift. Industry figures offer another sign of a subdued market. No major industry changed much in September. Health care added 17,000 jobs, about half its average monthly gain over the prior year. Financial activities lost 7,000 jobs and stood 129,000 below its May 2025 peak. Shrinking white-collar sectors can make a move harder for a mid-career worker considering a new role. Employment does not guarantee advancement A low unemployment rate tells us that people have jobs; it does not show whether they are moving into better roles. The quits rate, a public measure of how often workers leave jobs voluntarily, was 1.9% in August, unchanged from July, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, released Sept. 29. That low rate is consistent with workers staying put when another job does not seem safer than the one they have. Staying can carry a pay cost. The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker reported median pay growth of 5.0% in August for workers who changed jobs, compared with 3.6% for those who stayed. The 1.4-percentage-point difference illustrates the potential annual pay-growth gap between switching and remaining in a job. Pay growth trails inflation Average hourly earnings rose 3.0% over the year through September, slower than August’s 3.1% annual increase. That August gain already lagged consumer prices, which rose 3.4% over the same period, according to the August CPI release. The BLS calculated that real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% from August 2025 to August 2026. The September inflation figure is scheduled for Wednesday, Oct. 14, according to the BLS release calendar. Until it is published, a mid-career employee receiving a raise near 3% can reasonably expect that the increase may buy less than the previous year’s paycheck. The risk of leaving Job-search duration helps explain why workers may hesitate to leave. In September, 27.1% of unemployed Americans had been looking for work for at least 27 weeks, and the average search lasted 24.8 weeks, according to BLS duration data. The average was nearly six months, and more than a quarter of job seekers had already reached or passed the 27-week mark. For someone with a mortgage and dependents, those figures can make a known job feel like the safer option. Staying is a rational response to the risk, although the slower pay growth can carry a cost over time. Practical steps for mid-career workers Workers ages 35 to 44 can use these figures to guide two practical steps. First, consider the difference between pay growth for job switchers and stayers when preparing to negotiate. If an employer offers a raise near the 3.6% stayer median, the 5.0% median for movers provides a comparison point. The 1.4-point gap can serve as an anchor for a raise conversation alongside inflation and other relevant factors. Second, keep a job search warm even if you do not plan to leave. Since the average search lasts nearly six months, maintaining a few conversations each quarter may help reduce the time needed to respond if your job situation changes. The Millennial Economy Index returns next month with the October jobs report.