Kenyan households are staring at a sugar crisis in the short-term amid rising prices, as retailers run out of stock.

This comes on the back of a shut down of local millers mainly in the Western Kenya and Nyanza, which are the country’s main sugar belts.

Last month, the Agriculture and Food Authority asked millers in Western Kenya to shut down over cane shortage which had led to poaching and crushing of pre-mature cane.

Firms from the region which have since halted shut their machines include West Kenya Sugar Company (Kabras) and Butali Sugar Mills with other privately-owned and ailing state sugar millers already out of production.

Mumias Sugar Company (under receivership), had halted operations two months earlier. 

They are expected to resume crushing at the end of September, a move that has created a product shortage. 

Among private owned-millers, only Kwale International Sugar Company (KISCOL) has indicated it would continue to crush and supply in bulk, as it is yet to venture into branded retail packaging.

“We are milling, we are going up despite others going down. We have enough cane with eighty per cent ours and twenty per cent from outgrowers,” KISCOL general manager Pamela Ogada said.

The firm is selling a 50-kg bag at Sh9,400, releasing between 5,000 and 6,000 tonnes per month, into the market.

The miller crushes for between eight and nine months annually.

There are nine private and five government-owned sugar manufacturers in the country.

Private millers are West Kenya, Kibos Sugar, Butali Sugar Mills, Transmara Sugar Company, Sukari Industries Limited, KISCOL, Kisii Sugar Factory and West Valley Sugar.

Mumias, Nzoia, Sony Sugar, Muhoroni and Chemelil Sugar are state owned.

A spot check by the Star in Nairobi yesterday established that most retail stores were buying in bulk and repacking.

Ndhiwa Sugar by private miller-Sukari Industries, was the main branded product on the shelves.

Prices have continued to remain high with a 2-kg pack averaging between Sh420 and Sh450 at Naivas, Carrefour and Quickmart.

Naivas Chief Operations Officer Willy Kimani yesterday confirmed the supply chain had been hit.

“Yes, there is a supply constrain and prices are going up,” Kimani told the Star.

A supervisor at QuickMart Supermarket, Tom Mboya Street, told the Star: "We are seeing a situation where we could be forced to limit purchases per customer if supplies don't improve."

Retail Trade Association of Kenya (Retrak) CEO Wambui Mbarire said suplies started to be affected two weeks ago when major suppliers such as Kabras and Butali closed.

“We have now seen improved supplies and prices are expected to come down. We saw in the news that the gov't has also reopened imports,”she told the Star.

The supply chain is however expected to remain strained until imports arrive into the country, as Kenya moves to sources outside the COMESA market.

This follows President William Ruto’s announcement on importation.

"We have been reluctant to import sugar to avoid working against our farmers, but now, in the next two weeks, you will see a difference as we have ordered imports from outside the COMESA market," Ruto said.

Availability however remains a challenge even in the import source markets, according to industry trends, blamed on low production and countries holding on to their stocks to meet local demand.

According to Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mithika Linturi, Kenya has been unable to import from the COMESA either due to shortage or refusal by a section of member states to sell.

Private businessmen will be allowed to bring in 100,200 tonnes of sugar during a four-month importation window. 

Government data indicates national demand stands at 1.01 million metric tonnes against local production of 490,704 metric tonnes, leaving an annual deficit of 521,695 metric tonnes.

Kenya has a milling capacity of 14.96 million metric tonnes (41,000 tonnes of cane per day).

Current production stands at  4.75 million metric tonnes, which is 48 per cent of the milling capacity, yet the country needs to process 9.8 million metric tonnes of cane that can produce 1.09 metric tonnes of the product.

This has led to continued imports mainly from COMESA markets of Eswatini, Mauritius, Zambia , Zimbabwe and Egypt.

Outside Comesa, one of the major markets is Brazil.

Mello Commodity, a Brazilian agricultural commodities marketing and sales agency says the sugar industry faces a challenging scenario in the second half of 2023, with the imminent risk of a worldwide sugar shortage.

"Several factors, such as the sugar shortage crisis in Bangladesh and export restrictions in India, as well as other issues in the major sugar exporting countries, contribute to this worrying situation,” said Jacimara da Silva, sales lead at Mello Commodity.