El Nino: Government should translate plans into action

The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that El Niño is coming and will persist through February 2027. This is definitely not good news for North-Eastern Kenya, which is yet to recover from drought. This year, the National Disaster Management Authority reported a drought situation in Mandera and Wajir. With the current forecasts predicting a 90 per cent probability of heavier-than-normal rainfall between October and December, the situation is about to get worse.

A sudden transition from drought to intense rainfall does not automatically equal recovery. It can only complicate the situation for already weakened livestock now exposed to disease, degraded soils unable to absorb intense rainfall, damaged water systems and displaced households.

The Government-both at the national and the county level-says it has plans to address the unfolding crisis. Indeed, it would be inaccurate to say that Kenya’s two levels of government are doing nothing to prepare for El Nino. The national government says it has activated an El Niño contingency plan, including mapping hotspots.

County governments in Northern Kenya say they have set up multi-agency committees, developed public advisories and put rescue teams on standby.

But plans are not the same as readiness. The concern, therefore, is not the absence of policy announcements but the gap between national plans and the reality of their implementation at the grassroots level. The government itself acknowledges the need to strengthen last-mile warning, while the current contingency measures are still being rolled out only weeks before the expected rains.

Kenya is said to be arranging access to World Bank emergency financing. These are important measures, but readiness must be judged at the village, river crossing, dispensary, school, livestock route and county road—not only by the existence of a contingency document in Nairobi or a county headquarters.