There’s been a lot of talk about Pool B being the Rugby World Cups group of death but it shouldn’t be after the first round of the competition is completed on Sunday - at least not for the reigning champions.
When Siya Kolisi’s Springboks clash with Richie Gray’s Scotland on Sunday in Marseille it will be a match up between the No 2 ranked team (South Africa) in the world and the No 5 (Scots) in the world, and that does imply an element of jeopardy. Make no mistake, the Scots on their best day can push the South Africans.
But while the rankings make it look like a tight contest, the reality may be that there is a fair chasm that has developed between the top four in the world - Ireland, South Africa, France and New Zealand - and the rest.
And the Boks should make that gap show on Sunday, for much though the Scots’ forward play has improved and they’ve brought greater physicality to their game, they should not be able to match the power of the South African forwards and the physicality of the allround Bok game. Not on the form that the Boks have shown recently, in particular the way they dominated the All Blacks last time out.
There was a lot of talk afterwards about the South African decision to go with a 7:1 split between forwards and backs on the bench. But that had no impact on the game and how it turned out. The Boks were already 21-0 up, and they should have been 35-0, when the replacements came onto the field.
KLEYN’S INJURY DOES HURT A LITTLE BUT WON’T SAVE SCOTS
If the Boks can mangle the All Black pack like that they can certainly do the same to the Scots, although the loss of Jean Kleyn to injury could have some impact. It might seem inconsequential to many, as Kleyn was never going to start and was always slated to play off the bench, but the impact of the so-called Bomb Squad is greater when there are two locks on the bench which implies you can replace an entire front five.
That shouldn’t save the Scots though from what is likely to be an opening defeat that will remove much of the pressure from the South Africans, who will then be almost assured of an advance to the quarterfinals regardless of what happens in the appetising showdown with the world No 1 ranked team, Ireland, on 23 September.
Tonga did push a second string Bok team at the 2007 World Cup but they won’t be able to beat this current South African side, and the other opponent in the Pool is lowly Romania, so a Bok win on Sunday will effectively mean the pressure for qualification is off. They will then have to decide which team they prefer to face in the quarterfinal, France or New Zealand, which is something Friday night’s opening game between those two sides will confirm for them.
THERE WON’T BE COMPLACENCY
If there was a chance of complacency in the Bok camp, the optimism of a South African win in the opening game would be considerably diminished. But this Bok team is a mature one and they have two coaches who were involved in the 2019 triumph in Japan and know what winning this tournament requires.
This is the start of the World Cup, the stage they’ve been preparing for over a period of several years. They’ve had the players on red alert about the perils of focusing too much on Ireland at the expense of Scotland all year. It should equate to a high intensity performance in Marseille.
Yes, of course there are things the Boks need to be wary of about the Scots. Finn Russell for one. The flyhalf didn’t get to play much for the British and Irish Lions when they were here in 2021, but when he was introduced in the final test he made a big impact with his unpredictable running style and ability to bring his outside backs into the game.
WATCH OUT FOR COUNTER-PUNCH
They also can’t afford to relax if they do get it right early and repeat the Twickenham effort against the All Blacks by taking the initiative early. One thing you can be certain of about the Scots is that they don’t lie down and die if they are pummelled early in the game. They are resilient and roll with the punches and have shown in recent years, and particularly in the last few warmup games, a great penchant for striking back against the odds.
They did it in almost stupendous fashion against England a few years back, and again against France in St Etienne more recently. In all their warmup games they were iffish in the first half and cooked in the second, so the Boks should be wary of letting them get any kind of momentum. For once they have it, it can be difficult to turn the tide back in your favour.
However, any talk about what the Scots do against other teams might be rendered irrelevant once they’ve been exposed to Boks’ high, aggressive and physical defensive line, and have been placed under pressure by a pack which is made up of seven players in the starting unit that were part of the 2019 World Cup final and a few more pivotal players coming on off the bench.
Scotland are a good team and a respected opponent. The Boks won’t go in thinking it will be easy. The Scots have knocked over big teams in recent years. However it is hard to avoid the feeling that the Scots are the best of the rest but not quite good enough to trouble the top four.
If the Boks tripped up it wouldn’t quite be a shock on the level of Brighton in 2015, but it would be a major surprise nonetheless. The Boks should win this and they will.
TEAMS
South Africa: Damian Willemse, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Cheslin Kolbe, Manie Libbok, Faf de Klerk, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Franco Mostert, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff. Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Ox Nche, Trevor Nyakane, RG Snyman, Marco van Staden, Duane Vermeulen, Grant Williams, Willie le Roux.
Scotland: to be confirmed
Referee: Angus Gardner
Prediction: South Africa to win by at least 10
