To the consternation of many Azimio followers, Raila Odinga, who was evidently endorsed and facilitated by former President Uhuru Kenyatta, failed to take power in 2022.
If we are to choose the option of accepting that the reward of politicking is none other than power, then we will not take that first statement lightly. While we do not suppose that Raila and Azimio should have rigged the election, a larger part of winning the election would have been splendid organization, which Uhuru would have greatly assisted in.
After agreeing on a truce, or at least a “bipartisan approach” to resolve some of issues Azimio has raised, and which had led to demonstrations, Raila appeared to present a gradated position two days later.
He called for an approach similar to one employed in the 2008 Kofi Annan-led talks through which the grand coalition government was created. Raila has again put across a myriad of demands this time round. His push may not be viewed as undesirable because these kinds of negotiations have always left Kenya a notch improved, but Kenyans will be wary of processes that will waste taxpayers’ money like the Building Bridges Initiative.
The essence of negotiations is the pulling towards the centre of all sides. It may appear that Raila and Ruto have not yet agreed on a framework for the dialogue. The ODM boss wants a process that actually involves the President himself at some point, while President William Ruto wants a process aligned to the structures in Parliament. It is plausible that Raila believes that a process in Parliament will not be satisfactory, while Ruto believes the opposition should toe its line.
It is unclear whether the talks will actually start and if Ruto and Kenya Kwanza will agree on a process that runs independently from Parliament or if Raila will still walk back his words and rally his troops in the House. One thing is clear though, that for the President, the matter of appointment of IEBC commissioners can be discussed, but the rest should be taken as ideas suggested by the opposition within Parliament.
Nevertheless, we have to try and think like politicians — many Kenyans are avid followers of political goings-on because politics affects our lives in profound ways — although some of us follow it like we do football.
The violence of 2007-08 was particularly shocking and disturbing to Kenyans who had hitherto experienced a largely peaceful nation. While the era of the late President Moi was not particularly clean, at least he was a champion of peace and whether that served him or Kenyans better is not the subject for now.
Many feel the recent demonstrations should not proceed because they will only lead to the loss of lives, destruction of property and damaging of our economy.
Raila was involved in the clamour for a new constitution promulgated in 2010 and which he, together with President Mwai Kibaki and others, facilitated. Like Raila, Kibaki had also fought from the outside as an opposition politician after Moi dropped him as vice president in 1988.
Maybe from an opposition gear, it was easy to convince Kibaki to allow reforms and they only haggled about the how. Devolution is a huge benefit Kenyans have drawn from the new laws because more people at the grassroots are able to have a say in development by determining their representation and holding them to account.
In terms of the benefits of power to politicians, paradoxically, the main political beneficiaries of the new Constitution were Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto, who jointly took power in 2013. This is despite Ruto opposing the new Constitution. This is the unpredictability of politics.
This takes us to an inevitable point. There is no doubt that Raila pursues power and he feels he has always been disenfranchised after winning elections. Therefore, the discussions he wants will be aimed at putting in place mechanisms that would guarantee him a win in the next elections, or is it?
He has demanded the reinstating of the ‘Cherera Four’ commissioners, which begs the question of whether that would deliver for him. The four clearly took sides in the last election when they rejected the declaration of Ruto as winner of the presidential contest by IEBC Chairman Wafula Chebukati. They obviously can be considered to be pro-Raila.
Not even Raila is sure of what would be results of engagement between Kenya Kwanza and Azimio, what direction discussions would take. There are things Raila will never be able to do without presidential power. He has desired to be President, but it takes a lot more than rejecting results and demanding reforms after every poll. The failed BBI proves this point. Okoa Kenya does the same. The message is always that “with the structures and circumstances that exist, Raila cannot become president”.
The cliché ‘power is taken and not given…’ is a painful one for Raila and his followers to reminisce. It is easy for Azimio to put together idle youth to demonstrate and cause mayhem on the streets as they engage police, the intention being to make the country ungovernable after being unable to ascend to power. Raila still believes that holding the nation at ransom bears fruit yet it has never delivered the presidency for him.
One quality of a politician who has lost their edge is that the voice of the people is no longer recognizable in their words. Raila used to resonate largely and deeply with the thoughts and dreams of Kenyans. Soon after the grand coalition government took off, Kenyans started feeling the heat and as the national spending swelled and Kenyans started wishing that could change. The new government in 2013 was a bit of a relief and Kenyans had great hopes. The disappointment was the corruption it came with and further higher spending in inflated projects such as the standard gauge railway.
Strangely, after the 2017 elections, Raila came together with Uhuru to try and edge out Ruto from the succession and even power over the period of 2017-22. Instead of focusing on a laser-focused plan that would enable him become president after Uhuru, Raila fell for the grand plan of the BBI, which gave his nemesis Ruto political fodder and momentum. This was the biggest chance Raila had of taking power and which his advisers squandered.
Right now, Raila is not really guaranteed of political mileage with the charge he is making. Kenyans want peace. Kenyans want the economy improved. We are looking forward.
“When you marry a lady, you don’t go back and start investigating her past”, one man told me recently. “Ruto was declared president by the IEBC and the Supreme Court ratified this when it dismissed the petition”.
Raila must catch up with the thoughts of Kenyans and come up with a practical power plan and not live in the past, where Ruto managed one painful one over him. Unfortunately, this will require patience and a proper organisation for 2027, as opposed to the disorganization of 2022, where even Azimio lacked agents in many parts of Mt Kenya region and the Rift valley. Otherwise there is no mercy in politics.
On the other hand, Kenya needs to outgrow tribal or regional cocoons to deal with existent and imminent challenges. This is the task Ruto has — reviving the economy, lowering the cost of living, and ensuring peaceable conditions for all.
Focusing on some reforms at whatever level outside of Parliament would be a waste of time at a crucial time for the country.
