Following a well-trodden path, an anonymous source (claiming to be an IEBC whistle-blower) recently published a set of alternative results of the 2022 presidential general election, which was narrowly won by William Ruto (according to IEBC staff and a unanimous Supreme Court verdict).

These alleged results conveniently appeared just after IECB Chairman Chebukati has retired, so could no longer properly defend himself. They were then picked up by the opposition and trumpeted as evidence of fraud.

The differences between alleged whistle-blower results ("AWBRs" henceforth) and the 2017 fakes come from an anonymous source and not the Raila's camp.

The whistle blowers results are only at constituency level and that there were no polling station results therefore nothing can be verified or disproved explicitly by reference to posted 34A polling station forms.

More than half of the whistleblowers results match well with the official results. 

The overall result claimed by the ABWRs is a 58% to 42% victory for Raila over Ruto, in contrast to the 49%-50% official result. So the difference is huge.

I compared result constituency-by-constituency between the two sets of results to look for differences.

After finding the results I determined what changed and how, then compared with other elections for the same constituency on the same day (particularly the MP results as they are a direct comparator) and also compare for plausibility with other results from the same county.

Findings from the analysis shows the results are a mix of real results from almost all results for example in Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Embu, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Samburu, Turkana, Pokot, Siaya, Kisumu and Homa Bay.

Transpositions and movements of votes between candidates which could be real. Examples would include Laisamis, Isiolo North and Isiolo South where the reversed results.

I  haven't checked the 34As but it should be verifiable quite quickly in a small seat like Laisamis. Either Ruto got 14,000 and Raila 4000 (as IEBC calculated) or the other way round.

The 34B for Laisamis is pretty clear and appears signed by party agents and its hard to believe that no one noticed during five days of station by station reconciliations if everything was reversed.

Clumsy transpositions which are so obviously false that they lead me to conclude that again we have a fake on our hands.

In more than 20 constituencies the AWBRs reverse the votes for Ruto and Raila in a way which simply makes no sense.

For example Buuri and Maara in the Meru  counties: UDA won both seats in the MP contests, and Ruto won by huge margins in all the other Meru seats, but in these two the results have been switched, rather obviously: (red indicates that the results reported by the AWBR have swapped the IEBC reported results for the two candidates round).

In Nyeri, the home of deputy president Rigathi Gachagua, where UDA won every seat in Parliament by 4-1 margins, we again see three seats (Tetu, Kieni, Mukurweini) with the Raila-Ruto results switched, plus Mathira and Othaya where 7000-10,000 votes have been moved (leaving the results in Ruto's favour but by smaller margins).

The other seats were left as the IEBC reported, leaving a bizarre patchwork which makes little sense.

Similarly in Kirinyaga, Martha Karua's home, three of the four results have been reversed, but strangely the 'faker' again left one of the four as it was, producing a bizarre result whereby a 5-1 victory one way switches 5-1 the other way. By comparison, UDA won all four seats in parliament roughly 2-1, they won the Governor and Senator seat 5 and 10-1 versus Jubilee candidates, and the Women Rep seat 4-1 (announcement attached as evidence):

One final example, I think clinches that these results are a simple fake: the results in Uasin Gishu, Ruto's home. Few would argue that Raila would stand much chance here. In the Women Representative seat UDA won 6-1 versus ODM, for Governor and for Senator, Azimio didn't even have a candidate and UDA won every parliamentary seat between 3-2 and 5-1 . 

There is simply no possibility that Raila beat Ruto in Uasin Gishu and won Kesses, Turbo and Moiben between 2-1 and 5-1. Yet that is what the AWBR claims: three of the five seats have had their Ruto votes counted for Raila again and vice versa, leaving the other two results unchanged. And just to be sure I didn't make a mistake in the export, here's the original image from the whistle-blower report:

Conclusion: Just as in 2017, this data set is at least partially a gross fake and no credence should be given to its reported results. No politician should use this fake to justify or rationalise any action.