They didn’t quite hit the target they had set themselves and they do have work to do, but the Springboks had every reason to feel satisfied with the 49-18 win over Tonga that ended the Rugby World Cup group phase for them in Marseille on Sunday night.
The 49 points would have been anticipated. Those who felt that Tonga might be a threat to the Boks were being fanciful, in the same way that those who built up the Italy v All Blacks game two days earlier were also living in the realms of fantasy. There just haven’t been enough big competitive games between top teams in the Pool phase of this World Cup, hence the hubris that has driven the buildup to some matches.
However, while the victory was expected, the motivation that Tonga took onto the field with them wasn’t. And when a team like Tonga put it together, then they can be dangerous, and had the Boks not been as physical and direct as they were, they could conceivably have been in trouble under the Stade Velodrome lights.
Given they’d only conceded two tries in their previous nine World Cup games, the three tries scored by Tonga would not have been anticipated. Perhaps that’s why, as Supersport’s in-studio analyst Frans Steyn pointed out, coach Jacques Nienaber looked angry rather than happy when he was interviewed straight after the game.
WON’T BE HAPPY WITH THE THREE TRIES CONCEDED
Lest it be forgotten, Nienaber made his name in rugby as a defence coach. He and national director of rugby Rassie Erasmus are also both perfectionists. Which means they won’t be happy that the team conceded the try that effectively erased their chances of hitting the 36 point winning margin that would have put them completely beyond the reach of Ireland and/or Scotland in the battle to get out of Pool B and into the quarterfinals.
It was a great try from Tonga but it was poor South African decision making that led to it. So no, I it would be surprising if Nienaber was dancing a jig of joy after the final hooter. But if the Boks have left the door ajar for a potential calamity in the final week of the group phase, when Ireland and Scotland meet, it really is only in theory.
A 21 point win next week is needed by the Scots to put the Bok advance in jeopardy. And for the Boks to go out, it would mean that Ireland would have to pick up a bonus point in the process of losing by such a big margin. Meaning a four try bonus point. Lose by 21 or more and still score four tries? Weird things happen in sport but that would just be ridiculous and, as Steyn said, would require some kind of investigation into possible match fixing.
For the record, Ireland haven’t conceded four tries in a game since they lost to the All Blacks in the first test of last year’s series in New Zealand last June. In their unbeaten sequence of 16 matches since then, they’ve rarely if ever conceded more than two.
But Nienaber’s angst, if there is any, would be easy to understand. The World Cup is important to South Africa as a nation. An exit at this stage, meaning the Boks have played their last game, would be an unprecedented calamity. Rather keep your destiny in your own hands. And that was something they came tantalisingly close to doing.
QUARTERFINAL STAGE IS ALWAYS FRAUGHT AND TENSE
You can take poison though on the Boks now having secured their advance, and the time has arrived where the coaches have to plot for the tense and emotionally fraught experience that the quarterfinal games always are. At least for favoured teams who expect to go further.
Whether it’s the hosts, France, or the All Blacks they meet in just under a fortnight from now it is likely to be a game of fine margins. In that sense, the continuation of the Bok habit of not converting their occupation of land beyond the opposition 22 remains a massive concern. The Boks scored seven good tries on Sunday night, but they could have scored more.
The mistakes that cost them were not capitalised on by Tonga but will be by better teams, as Ireland did in Paris nine days ago. The Boks have two weeks to work on getting that right. They also have time now to think about the selection for the quarterfinal, something that has been made more complicated in a good way by Handre Pollard’s solid return to action.
The 2019 World Cup winning flyhalf saw out 50 minutes, which added to the 30 minutes he spent on the field in a club game recently, means he has now played 80 minutes in the space of several months. It was his only international rugby since he was injured last August. Is that enough to back him to start in a World Cup quarterfinal? It is debatable.
LIBBOK REMINDED US HE IS HARD TO LEAVE OUT
And the game was a reminder in more ways than one that Manie Libbok is not easy to leave out. When Pollard was on the field, there was something more predictable about their attacking game, which was mainly a strong reliance on the bulky presence at inside centre of Andre Esterhuizen, than when Libbok came on for the last quarter hour.
Libbok has improved beyond recognition as an international flyhalf and those who have said his kicking is poor have got it wrong - it is not his kicking per se that he has struggled with, it is his kicking from the tee. His kicking out of hand has been outstanding, and his line kicking was again to the fore on Sunday night.
And even his place-kicking problems might not be terminal. There will doubtless be a line that his immaculate display from the tee, which included two well taken angled conversions in his three out of three successful attempts, came about because he now has competition for his place from Pollard.
That though would be being overly simplistic and makes no sense as it implies he was happy to miss kicks before. What was noticeable when he kicked in Marseille was that he was quicker in teeing the ball up, and had less of a rush to beat the count-down clock. The possibility that he was bothered by the clock was raised by the legendary Naas Botha in the Sunday media, and he may be right.
LOOKED CALMER AND MORE COMPOSED
Whatever the reason, Libbok did look a lot calmer and more composed in kicking for goal, and it may have vindicated what someone connected to Libbok said in conversation recently - “Manie may be just one game away from getting his kicking right and becoming the perfect flyhalf”.
So what do the Boks do - opt for the supposed calmness and steadiness of Pollard, or the X-factor attacking potential of Libbok? The latter’s beautiful passing game and his cross kicking have created a lot for the Boks at this World Cup, and let’s not forget that a try is worth five points against just three for a penalty.
Fortunately the Boks can include both in their match day squad and probably will. They just have to decide if they start with Libbok, who was brilliant in helping the Boks eke out an early advantage in the big warmup win over the All Blacks, or finish with him like they did on Sunday. The point is they now have back-up and can make a change if things are going pear-shaped with Libbok’s place-kicking.
The Boks didn’t give any indication in Marseille of whether they might consider Pollard for an inside centre role late in the piece. After being inactive for so long, they couldn’t extend Pollard’s time on the field, so when Libbok came on it was a straight swop. But that doesn’t mean they won’t unleash that option on an unsuspecting opposition on the night of 15 October.
FOURIE’S PERFORMANCE WAS A MASSIVE POSITIVE
The other big question mark the Boks took into the Tongan game that needed answering also drew a positive result. Deon Fourie, starting at hooker for the Boks for the first time, was the Man of the Match for his huge influence in so many areas of the Bok game, but it was his perfect night throwing the ball in at the lineouts that would most have pleased the coaches. On the evidence of this game, the Stormers flanker can certainly be the backup hooker to Bongi Mbonambi and his versatility brings some positive possibilities. His ability to slow opposition ball down will make it hard for opposing teams to chase if the Boks are leading in the last quarter regardless of whether he comes on as a hooker or looseforward.
Talking of players who can dovetail between hooker and flank, the Marco van Staden experiment had less positive results, and some skew throws towards the end cost the Boks in their quest to nail down the 36 point winning margin they were aiming for. It was a reminder that while Fourie has played more than a hundred games as a hooker, it is a much less familiar position for Van Staden.
Having said that, you don’t need three hookers, you only really need two, and Van Staden does bring so much in general play when he comes off the bench. We can assume Pieter-Steph du Toit will be back at No 7 in the quarterfinal, and Duane Vermeulen will either switch to No 8 or revert to a bench role, so the Boks are spoiled for choice.
What they don’t have now though is the space to get things wrong. Whatever is decided for the quarterfinal has to hit target or the dream of defending the World Cup title they won in Japan in 2019 will die two weeks before the scheduled decider. It’s going to be a tense and nervous two weeks but then that’s what defines a World Cup.
