When the All Blacks were smashed by the Springboks in their final warmup game there was some cynicism afterwards towards their coach Ian Foster for telling the media that it wasn’t a huge train-smash for his men and served a purpose.
But while many took on that view because of the proximity of the Kiwis’ big Rugby World Cup opening game against the hosts in Paris on Friday night, meaning exactly two weeks after the clash at Twickenham where they were hammered 35-7 by the reigning champions, it is true that the pressure on New Zealand is less than it is on most of the other top contenders.
Friday’s is a massive game from the viewpoint of taking confidence into the World Cup. But the All Blacks are effectively where the Boks were four years ago in Japan. There will be an intense buildup to the game, just like there was for Siya Kolisi’s team when they opened against New Zealand in Yokohama four years ago.
BOKS BROKE A PSYCHE BARRIER IN 2019
Given the strength of the rest of the Pool, and what the result means towards the quality of opponent they will face in the quarterfinals, the Stade de France game isn’t life and death. And it was the Boks in 2019 who paved the way for that release of pressure by breaking through the barrier by becoming the first side to win the Webb Ellis trophy after losing a Pool game.
The Boks were well beaten in the 2019 opener in Yokohama. They didn’t have anyone other than Italy to play after that in the Pool phase when it came to top tier nations, and they were always going to win that game in Shizouka. Just like the All Blacks will almost certainly win against the same opponents should the Paris result on Friday force them into a must win situation.
What the All Blacks have that the other teams who have hit the ground running is an opportunity during the World Cup to build. It’s not the same with South Africa or Ireland, or for that matter Scotland, who are in a Pool of death and are effectively playing knock-out rugby from the off.
Of course there is pressure on New Zealand to recover some pride after the Twickenham mauling, and in that way perhaps the Boks changed the early narrative ever so slightly. But for the Kiwis, regardless of Friday’s result, it still comes down to them to what it always did - winning a difficult quarterfinal which will most likely be against one of South Africa or Ireland.
There’s not much to separate either of those possible opponents, it’s a case of six of one and half a dozen of the other. The All Blacks were outplayed at forward by the Boks last time out, and they know that is an area that requires work, but they’ve turned around their forward play in much quicker time in the past than what they have until the mid-October quarterfinal.
As for Ireland, well they’ve been as emphatically victorious against New Zealand in the past year as the Boks occasionally have. Indeed, their series win on Kiwi soil last year surpassed anything any other team has done against the All Blacks in the last decade.
WHY THERE’S MORE PRESSURE ON FRANCE
If there isn’t as much pressure on the All Blacks as people think, surely the same applies to France? It actually doesn’t. Playing host does bring an extra pressure, and as Nick Mallett reminded us in his book, “Insights into the Rugby World Cup”, published by Jonathan Ball, the French have throughout their history been inclined to turn on their team when they disappoint.
That is what happened when they lost to Argentina on the opening night of the last World Cup in France in 2007, so there will be massive pressure on Antoine du Pont’s men to get it right this time. Even though for them the situation is the same as it is for the All Blacks - the result on Friday shouldn’t impact on their path to the quarterfinal stage.
France have had their injury concerns of late but they were comprehensively better than New Zealand the last time they played them so must start as overwhelming favourites to win the opener. So the smart money should be on France ending first in Pool A, New Zealand second and Italy third. Then you take your pick when it comes to the showdown between the two minnows, Namibia and Uruguay for who ends fourth and fifth.
POOL A (World Rugby ranking in brackets)
FRANCE (3rd)
This is a World Cup that the French have been building towards for a long time and although they finished second to Ireland in the most recent Six Nations, they’ve arrived at this juncture where they would have wanted to be. Their annihilation of England in London during the Six Nations was a benchmark for the other teams and although England are not the team they were in 2019, it sent out the message that it will take a very good team indeed to knock France out.
They have though had a few teething problems in terms of injuries, and although they have the depth to replace him, the loss of regular flyhalf Romain Ntamack has to hurt, and there’ve been a few other injuries plus an injury cloud over their big South African born lock Paul Willemse at the start of the final weekend before the tournament kick-off.
A lot will also depend on the French psyche. They have historically been notoriously temperamental and they will need to keep their nerve under the extra pressure that comes with being hosts. My money says they’ve grown enough under the coaching of Fabien Galthie to do that and will be in the competition on the deciding day of the competition, playing against either South Africa or New Zealand.
NEW ZEALAND (4th)
Everyone was saying that the All Blacks were going into this tournament under the radar. The final warmup game though saw the radar pick up a team that looked potentially vulnerable, and which desperately needs Brodie Retallick and Shannen Frizell to return in time for the really big games of the tournament.
Fortunately for the All Blacks the real big games are the quarterfinal onwards, for Friday’s result when they open against France doesn’t count so much. Given where they were exposed against the Springboks at Twickenham, it is their forward play that needs most improvement, particularly if, as seems likely, they bump into the same opponents in that first knock-out game. The Bok big men were on a different planet to the All Black forwards in London.
Before the Boks beat them the All Blacks had gone 11 games without defeat, a sequence that started after they shook off a disappointing home defeat to Argentina by sneaking a close and controversial win (that was the Mathieu Raynal game) over Australia in Melbourne but included a draw against England in London last November.
The All Blacks aren’t the favourites they were going into Japan or before that the 2015 World Cup in England but they have enough individual talent to be anyone when everything clicks over 80 minutes. They are no longer favourites but they are dangerous.
ITALY (13th)
Italy crossed a significant barrier when they shocked France in the final game of the 2022 Six Nations in Cardiff and have occasionally looked quite threatening subsequent to that. Like Scotland and Ireland, they are also arguably helped by having regular contact with the South African physicality and flair in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship.
They are coached by Kiwi Kieran Crowley, who has had almost as long a coaching career as he had as a player. As a player he was the only player the Boks faced on their tour of New Zealand in 1994 who had also played against Wynand Claassen’s 1981 team, although in 1994 he was no longer an international and played them in a provincial game. As a coach he has been to the World Cup before as coach of Canada in 2011, and was the New Zealand under-19 coach as long ago as 2007.
Italy have had a series of good coaches, Nick Mallett being one, but what they lack is playing depth. They can frighten New Zealand and France perhaps for a period of their clashes with the two giants, but they won’t beat either and their tournament will end after the Pool phase. As it always does.
URUGUAY (17th)
If this was the round ball game the South Americans would be a real threat but it isn’t, and while rugby has been played in Uruguay for as long as it has been in Argentina, the sizes of the countries are vastly contrasting and that has been mirrored by the pace of their rugby evolution. The world’s southernmost country suffered a record defeat to South Africa in East London in 2005 and something similar might happen if New Zealand or France are in the mood on the day they clash with either.
NAMIBIA (21st)
Of course we South Africans don’t need to be introduced to our neighbours as a country, and older rugby followers may well remember a time when they (in those days as South West Africa) could be a seriously difficult team to face and included some star players. Those days are gone but rugby still remains a big sport in the country and with the help of the infusion of some nationals resident in South Africa, former Bok coach Allister Coetzee will feel he has a team that can put up some kind of spectacle in big games. As they have periodically done in the past. They only game they have a chance of winning though is the one against Uruguay.
